Prediction markets are no longer on the fringes — they are moving towards the financial mainstream. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket have experienced rapid growth by allowing investors to buy and sell event contracts tied to real-world outcomes — elections, policy decisions, inflation prints, regulatory rulings, even championship games — turning uncertainty into a marketable asset.

In the United States, oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has helped provide regulatory legitimacy to a space once viewed as a speculative novelty. Meanwhile, major exchange operators — including CME Group, Cboe, and Intercontinental Exchange — are exploring or supporting prediction-based products. Brokerage platforms such as Interactive Brokers and Robinhood are also expanding access and infrastructure, while several asset managers have filed for exchange-traded funds designed to provide direct exposure to election-related prediction markets.

Research from the U.S. Federal Reserve System has further concluded that prediction markets can serve as a valuable complement to existing forecast tools in both research and policy settings.

In Canada, while interest in event-based markets is growing, the ecosystem is still at an earlier stage of commercial and policy development compared with the United States.

The podcast explores what the rise of prediction markets could mean for the future of financial markets.